Rumors have been swirling in the corridors of Western power centers that efforts are underway to prop up the Ethiopian military to get rid of PM Abiy Ahmed. Abiy’s accusation that the CIA is working with Oromo officials to push him out of office is not caused by paranoia. It is a manifestation of a legitimate fear.
The growing demand for a transitional government is also partly oxygenated by the general belief that the international community has given up on Abiy.
Jawar’s June 26 Facebook post that markets the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) as peace maker signals two scenarios. The government is uninterested in delivering peace and security and/or it is incapable of calming the political turbulence.
Keep in mind that the ENDF has no mandate in mediating political conflicts.
Jawar’s post highlights five points:
- “It was the military that broke the ice, flying to Seychelles for the first-ever face-to-face meeting with commanders of Tigryan forces at a time when politicians were too wary of warmongering public opinion.”
- “It was also primarily the ENDF leadership that engineered the two rounds of talks with OLA.”
- “ENDF has a realistic assessment of the situation, which is why it wants to end domestic armed conflicts.”
- “As the ruling clique has become increasingly dependent on the military for its survival, the generals’ opinions carry much more weight than ever before.”
- “The ENDF leadership’s decision to step up the call for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in the Amhara region should be taken seriously.”
We know three things about Prime Minister Abiy. First, he does not give a crap about public opinion. If he wants peace, no warmonger can stop him. If he wants war no general can stand in his way. Second, he demands 100% loyalty. Third, his MO is projecting invincibility.
In light of these three truths, any suggestion that his generals will stray out of the line that the Prime Minister marks for them demands serious analysis.
Is Jawar telling us the military took the initiatives with TPLF and OLA outside of the chain of command from the Commander in Chief? Or is he saying the power balance within the government has shifted from civilian officials to military officers and the PM is a sitting duck? Or is he propping the military for a coup d’état?
If the story that the international community is hoping for a coup d’état and/or propping up agents of coup d’état is true, the role of the military will be establishing a transitional government. Is Jawar seeing a seat for himself on the head table?
I found his advice to Fano fighters and Amhara activists interesting. He wrote: “I strongly urge Fano commanders and Amhara activists to embrace this army-led peace initiative to end the devastating conflict in the region.”
When I read these lines, my mind wandered and found itself in the pages of Jawar’s Manifesto in which he labored to keep power under the Oromo government. Fanos will be fool to take his advice as genuine.
I am for a negotiated settlement. I encourage Fano to develop a political strategy. It needs to have a clear path to peace with clear gridlines to avoid regressions. Any request to disarm Fano should be rejected firmly and unequivocally. The issue of disarmament cannot be considered until a lawful government is established, not when the government is a bloodthirsty maniac.
Serious preconditions must be set, starting from releasing all political prisoners, returning the army back to its barracks, agreeing on terms and conditions of international investigations for all crimes committed in the country. This will allow a genuine negotiation to begin.
Any negotiation must be a political process and the military should not lead it. And Amhara Shene clowns should not be allowed to sabotage it. And Amharas do not need advice from the author of “Ethiopia out of Oromia” political theology.
Yonas Biru
