BY Tesfaye Kebede’s
The Iranian theocracy and its leaders’ longstanding hostile stance toward Israel and the US has proven to be a disastrous choice. By pursuing a strong military buildup, including a nuclear program, while remaining in constant confrontation with these powers—without the means to effectively defend against potential preemptive US strikes—Iran invited the kind of catastrophic consequences we’re witnessing now in the ongoing attacks.
This escalation stems from years of failed diplomacy and mounting tensions. Key factors include Iran’s accelerated uranium enrichment to near-weapons-grade levels (up to 60%+), restrictions on IAEA inspections, and rejection of nuclear talks in early 2025–2026. Despite multiple rounds of indirect US-Iran negotiations (mediated by Oman and others) aimed at curbing the program, no breakthrough occurred—Trump repeatedly warned that Iran could not acquire nuclear weapons. Combined with Iran’s support for proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas, advances in long-range missiles threatening US allies and interests, regional shifts (e.g., fall of Assad in Syria weakening Iran’s axis), and lobbying from Israel and reportedly Saudi Arabia for decisive action, the US and Israel launched joint strikes starting February 28, 2026. These targeted nuclear sites, missile facilities, leadership (including the killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei), and military assets, framed as eliminating “imminent threats” and preventing a nuclear-armed Iran amid perceived regime vulnerability from economic crises and protests.
Current Crisis
In my view, Iran’s immediate retaliation strategy appears flawed and counterproductive. If the US did not launch its strikes from military bases in Middle Eastern countries (relying instead on missiles and long-range bombers from Israel and its naval assets in international waters), then targeting those bases on sovereign Gulf territory is unwarranted and escalates the conflict unnecessarily. Striking them risks being seen as direct aggression against the host nations’ sovereignty.
Instead, Iran should:
1. Concentrate its strikes solely on Israeli targets and US naval assets operating in international waters, avoiding escalation into sovereign Arab lands.
2. If the US truly isn’t using those regional bases (and has evacuated personnel preemptively), closing the Strait of Hormuz would suffice as a powerful economic pressure point without broadening the war.
3. Issue a clear ultimatum to Gulf countries: prohibit the US from using their airspace or bases in this conflict, and demand confirmation that permissions for US military presence be revoked in the future also. If refused, Iran could first rally diplomatic and international support before considering any further action—only if strategically vital.
Attacking these wealthy Gulf states is a major strategic blunder. It pushes them more and more closer to the US and Israel, solidifies anti-Iran alliances, and squanders any potential public sympathy or diplomatic backing for Iran—especially among Gulf populations who often view Iran as a defender of the Muslim world. This miscalculation will isolate Tehran further, alienates potential support from international community and most importantly from its sympathizers in the Arab world, and prolongs regional suffering while weakening Iran’s position internationally.
In Conclusion
The Iranian theocracy’s strategic mistakes run far deeper than just the current retaliation. For nearly five decades, the regime has confronted the world’s superpower while building military capabilities under crushing sanctions—at the immense expense of the Iranian people’s lives and well-being. This has crippled the economy, fueled widespread hardship, and left the country unable to protect itself from the very attacks it provoked.
The regime’s 48-year-long strategic choice has proven utterly in vain: no meaningful gains, only isolation, poverty, and now devastation. Dragging the Iranian people back into endless conflict, troubling the entire region, and endangering the whole world represents one of the worst geostrategic blunders in history. Not only has it achieved nothing feasible, but it now risks plunging Iran into chaos. If the regime collapses under this pressure, civil war and ethnic fragmentation become very real possibilities—potentially leading to the disintegration of Iran itself. A fragmented Iran would bring unimaginable suffering to its people and destabilize the broader Middle East for generations.
Urgent Call to Both Sides: Save Iran, Humanity’s Precious Ancient Treasure
President Donald Trump and the leaders of Iran’s interim council—President Masoud Pezeshkian, Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, and Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i—I implore you to halt this spiral of destruction immediately.
Wisdom demands restraint, precision in any necessary military actions, and a return to genuine diplomacy instead of reckless escalation that risks total catastrophe. The Iranian regime’s decades-long path of confrontation has brought only ruin to its own people and the region—now is the moment for a fundamental rethink.
To President Trump: As the leader of the world’s most powerful nation, use your authority not just to neutralize threats but to preserve stability. Avoid any devastation to Iran’s integrity, one of humanity’s greatest ancient civilizations, whose cultural, historical, and human legacy belongs to the whole world cherishing its contributions. Ending this conflict swiftly, with de-escalation and negotiated safeguards, would serve true strength and prevent a wider war that endangers global peace.
To Iran’s interim authorities: Please be reminded that, Iran through millennia of conquests, empires, invasions, and ideological waves—from ancient Zoroastrianism to Hellenistic influences, from Arab caliphates to Mongol hordes, from Safavid Shi’ism to Pahlavi secular modernism, and now the post-1979 Islamic Republic’s unique blend of theocracy and revolution— has absorbed, adapted, transformed, and ultimately outlasted them all. No single doctrine has ever fully subdued the Persian soul or extinguished its civilizational continuity. Whether imposed by force, seduction, or internal revolution, foreign or homegrown ideologies or religious believes have come and gone, yet Iran’s core resilience—rooted in its ancient philosophy, language, poetry, art, sense of historical destiny, and adaptive spirit—endures unbroken.
You have to recognize the 48-year theocratic reigns strategic failure—confronting superpowers under crippling sanctions, building mere military capabilities at the devastating expense of the Iranian people’s lives and economy, only to prove unable to defend yourself and the nation from these attacks. This choice has been in vain, achieving nothing but isolation, poverty, and now existential peril. Dragging the Iranian people back into endless suffering, troubling the entire region, and endangering the world is one of history’s worst geostrategic mistakes. It not only vanishes without achievement but invites chaos: civil war, ethnic fragmentation, and even the disintegration of Iran itself, with risks of separatist movements (including Kurdish independence efforts supported externally) tearing apart this unified civilization.
My Prayers to Iran
God protect Iran and its resilient people from erasure in the face of history. Both sides must choose de-escalation, dialogue, and preservation over vengeance. The survival of Iran’s integrity is not something irreplaceable only for the well-being of its people but to spare one of world’s great ancient civilizations is better for mankind (myself very much in-it) as well—act now, before it’s too late.
